Thursday, September 29, 2011
Carter Racing
I enjoyed the discussion we had on the Carter Racing article in class on Monday. Reading the article and analyzing it before hand, I had decided that I thought they should still race. When we got together in groups, my group also agreed that they should go for the race. We found no reason for them not too considering the evidence and statistics we had. As a class we figured out the expected value and probability of all the choices. We, still as a class, with those results, decided that they should race. When Dr. Goates gave us the second paper with more data about the weather, our decisions began to change very quickly. With the other information, we realized there seemed to be a much stronger correlation between the weather and blown engine gaskets. It made me realize how quickly we sometimes look at situation, and could be so set on a decision, but we don't realize we're not looking at the full picture. In all situations, whether at work, school, or just in life, many times we don't always see all the "evidence" or "data". The Carter team worked great together and had been very successful that season. If they had just raced though, without looking into the extra data about the weather, they could have blown everything. Before jumping to conclusions with any decisions or actions, we should always take a step back first to make sure we're are taking everything into account.
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I thought it was interesting how the majority of the class was keen on racing when we had the information in the article. When we were simply told that we were given all of the relevant information, having been told that the weather was not the problem, we assumed it was correct because we did not know any better. Obviously that was tragic in the Columbia incident, but who knows how often we are really misled from seeing the full picture. I agree with you that it's important to step back and make sure that we are taking all factors into account when making decisions, but it is often difficult to assess all factors when we are not even aware of them. If the additional information on weather wasn't presented to us, would we have even doubted the earlier verdict that weather was inconsequential to the failure of the engine that was necessary to take all of the factors into account? When it all boils down, it seems like it may be more necessary to accept all information with a grain of salt and assess information from others more cautiously.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Lindy and liked how the carter Racing exercise developed. pretty much everyone decided that they should race based off of the one scatter plot graph. However, once everyone got the additional data on the races that Carter Racing won, everybody changed their minds and decided not to race. They shouldn't jump to conclusions without all the information.
ReplyDeleteI agree as well. I like how the article developed in the sense that it got group members to not only analyze and pick-apart the given information, but also to think about what other information is needed to make a sound decision. For example, we decided in class that we needed an additional piece of information to make a decision, and the Dr. Goates provided another paper that had the necessary information. I feel that this ability to foresee the future information needed will be very beneficial in our future business careers.
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